12.
Zero alternative for Pesisir Tropicana
Within the formulation
of the zero alternative, it should be decided if autonomous development are
included or not. If not, than the zero alternative is the same as the existing
situation.
In this exercise,
we include the autonomous developments of the Pesisir Tropicana Region as follows:
| Sector |
Natural
growth rate (%) |
| Tin
mining |
1.0 |
| Agriculture |
1.5 |
| Fisheries |
2.0 |
| Aquaculture |
0.0 |
| Tourism |
1.0 |
[Questions phase 3]
13. Scenarios
Scenarios reflect
exogene influences. For Pesisir Tropicana, scenarios could be based on assumptions
on:
- population
growth (percentage);
- price of commodities
(fluctuation in tin price, either positive or negative);
- pollution.
For the exercise,
we assume a scenario based on population growth and price of tin as follows:
- Population
growth = 3.5%
- Yearly increase
of tin price: 1.0 %
[Questions phase 3]
14. Alternative investments
Alternative investments
are in :
- Urban expansion;
- New port
facilities;
- Expansion
of tin-mining;
- Tourist
facilities;
- Aquaculture;
- Fisheries;
- Agriculture;
- National
marine reserve;
- Waste water
treatment plants;
- Tailing
treatment plants;
- Flood control;
- Higher wages;
- More police.
[Questions phase 3]
15. Boundary conditions
It will not be
possible to implement all alternative investments in such a way that the potentials
of each option can be utilized fully, as (amongst others):
- the total available
budget will never be sufficient to implement all options to their maximum
potential;
- the effects
of increased activities in one sector may negatively influence the developments
in other sectors (like: increased industrial activity --> increased pollution
--> negative effects for aquaculture, national reserve, etc.);
- limited available
labour.
Further, trying to
implement all these options may also lead to conflicts in planning and resources
management. For example, is there enough coastal land for the development of residential
housing, tourist hotels and aquaculture? How might the construction of a new port
and the increased shipping affect existing fisheries and the conditions of the
national reserve? If increasing industrial activities will cause serious water
pollution, what is its effect on agriculture, fisheries, environment and recreational
activities? Which measures should be taken to prevent or reduce these conflicts,
and how can an optimal balance be achieved?
For the exercise,
we consider that boundary conditions follow from objectives, like for instance:
- Good employment
rate on short and long term
- Good development
of especially agriculture and fisheries
- Good development
of income per head on the long term
- Clean water
for irrigation (secondary objective)
- Protection
of mangrove (secondary objective)
Then the following
alternatives can then be defined:
- Investment
in mining and tourism, as to create good employment + investments in agriculture
and fisheries. To decrease the negative effects of pollution because of mining
(heavy metals) and tourism and fisheries (E-coli), investments are also made
on waste water treatment and tailing treatment;
- Investment
in fisheries, agriculture and aquaculture + waste water treatment plants.
[Questions phase 3] [Questions
phase 4]